This year’s field appears below. As well as looking at the dosages for the runners of this race, we will also have a brief look at the breeding to see if there are any features of the pedigrees that may help us in our own breeding endeavours.

1 In Time’s Eye (GB) [0.15/1.08] [5-2-13-4-2] (26)
2 Grand Armee [0.40/1.50] [4-4-8-4-0] (20)
3 Hail (NZ) [0.50/2.00] [3-1-0-0-2] (6)
4 Pentastic [0.90/2.64] [9-2-7-2-0] (20)
5 Distinctly Secret (NZ) [0.95/3.89] [8-5-9-0-0] (22)
6 Mummify [0.65/3.44] [2-10-7-1-0] (20)
7 Hugs Dancer (FR) [0.79/2.11] [6-1-5-2-0] (14)
8 Platinum Scissors [0.52/2.15] [9-13-27-2-1] (52)
9 Sunday Joy [0.56/2.24] [6-8-19-1-0] (34)
10 Honor Babe (NZ) [0.59/2.38] [4-7-9-2-0] (22)
11 Strasbourg [0.75/2.43] [8-4-10-2-0] (24)
12 Grey Song [0.50/3.29] [1-17-10-0-2] (30)
13 Makybe Diva (GB) [0.57/2.41] [7-12-27-0-0] (46)
14 Oarsman (NZ) [-0.78/0.20] [0-0-6-10-2] (18)
15 Another Warrior [0.53/1.78] [10-7-7-6-2] (32)
16 Zagalia (NZ) [-0.26/0.77] [2-4-28-4-8] (46)
17 Vicksburgh [1.30/5.67] [6-1-3-0-0] (10)
18 Rose Archway [-0.17/0.89] [6-1-3-0-8] (18)
19 Ain’t Seen Nothin’ [0.50/2.53] [2-11-17-0-0] (30)
20 Ascana [0.21/1.09] [6-1-11-4-2] (24)
21 Daneborogh [0.39/2.03] [3-15-23-2-1] (44)
22 Gentle Genius [0.25/1.59] [4-14-23-4-3] (48)

As we have seen regularly throughout the series of articles on dosages over the Spring, the Caulfield Cup field has a relatively small range of dosages. Vicksburg is notable in that she has a very high dosage profile for the distance. If we notice though, there are only 10 points in her total profile. Looking at her five generation profile, we now see it reads [0.68/2.24] [6-3-5.5-1.5-1] (17). Although still not very high in numbers, the total Dosage Index though is in the range that we would expect for runners in this race. Mummify is another runner who has a DI higher than we would expect. Her sire, Jeune, also had dosages higher than would be expected. Dr Roman has long rated his damsire, Green Dancer as a potential source of stamina, although it appears as if this influence is not always passed on in the case of Jeune’s progeny. If we look at Green Dancer as a source of possible stamina, then Mummify’s dosage profile now reads [0.21/1.82] [2-10-7-1-4] (24) that is again very close to the range we would expect in the race. This leaves Distinctly Secret as the most notable runner outside of the range that we expected. His sire, Distinctly North is bred to stallions that we do not often see in Australia and it could be that there are influences in this unusual pedigree that are more significant than we imagine. Either that, or Distinctly Secret could represent a significant risk at the distance. Overall the dosages may seem a little higher than I would have thought with a number of runners around the 2.50 mark. I might have expected that the majority of runners may have had dosage indices closer to 2.00 or lower. For this reason, I will be keeping a close eye on Mummify, Another Warrior, Daneborogh, Gentle Genius and the visitor Hugs Dancer most of whom should be at generous odds.

The pedigrees of the runners are very interesting. Of particular interest is the amount of linebreeding in the runners. It also allows us a further opportunity to examine the benefits or otherwise of same sex duplications. For the purposes of this article, I have looked only at duplications within the first 6 generations. Only 12 of the 22 runners have a duplication within the first 5 generations that clearly again emphasizes the power that outcross pedigrees have. So let us look at the duplications with female duplications underlined :-

IN TIME’S EYE

Swaps 6fx5f, Banish Fear 6mx6f

GRAND ARMEE

Northern Dancer 4mx5m, Somethingroyal 5mx6m, Bull Page 6mx6f, Princequillo 6fx6m

HAIL

Hyperion 5m,6mx6f, Nearco 6mx5m

PENTASTIC

Tudor Minstrel 4fx6f, Nearco 5mx6m,6m, Nasrullah 5mx6m, Count Fleet 6fx6f

DISTINCTLY SECRET

Nearco 5m,6m,6mx6m, Nasrullah 6m,5m,5fx6m,6m

MUMMIFY

Grey Sovereign 5mx6f, Worden II 5fx6f, Nasrullah 6mx6m,6m

HUGS DANCER

Native Dancer 5mx6f, Crepello 5mx6m, Migoli 5fx6m, Nearco 6fx6m

PLATINUM SCISSORS

Northern Dancer 3mx4m, Natalma 4m,4fx5m, Alibhai 5fx6m, Tom Fool 5mx6m, Fair Trial 6mx6f, Menow 6mx6f

SUNDAY JOY

Almahmoud 4fx6f,6f, Nearco 6mx6m

HONOR BABE

Northern Dancer 4mx5m, Nearco 5m,6mx6m,5f,6m, Princequillo 5fx5m, Hyperion 6fx6f, Fair Trial 6mx6f, Mumtaz Begum 6mx6f

STRASBOURG

Sir Ivor 4fx4m, Traffic Judge 5fx5f, Princequillo 5fx6m, Nasrullah 6m,6fx6m, Nearco 6mx6m

GREY SONG

Relic 6fx5m,5m, Princequillo 6mx6m

MAKYBE DIVA

Northern Dancer 4m,4mx4f, Natalma 5m,5f,5mx5m, Nearco 6m,6m,5mx6m

OARSMAN

Alcide 4mx5f, Alycidon 5m,6fx6f,6m, Nasrullah 6mx6m

ANOTHER WARRIOR

Star Kingdom 5m,5mx4m, Hyperion 6mx6m, Bull Lea 6mx6f

ZAGALIA

Sir Ivor 3mx4f, Northern Dancer 4mx4m, All Moonshine 5fx6m, Nearco 6mx6m,6m

VICKSBURGH

Northern Dancer 4mx6m, High Hat 5mx5f

ROSE ARCHWAY

Owen Tudor 5mx5m, Hyperion 6m,6mx6m, Nasrullah 6mx6m, Nearco 6mx6m,6f

AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’

Sir Ivor 4mx3m, Nearco 6mx6m, Princequillo 6mx6f, Almahmoud 6f,6fx6f

ASCANA

Nearco 5m,5mx6m, Hyperion 6fx6m, Turn-To 6mx6m, All Moonshine 6mx6f

DANEBOROGH

Nearco 5mx6m, Hyperion 6f,6mx6m

GENTLE GENIUS

Nearco 5mx5f, Pharos 6mx5m,6m

The only horses to have a same sex duplication within 5 generations are Grand Armee (Northern Dancer 4mx5m), Platinum Scissors (Northern Dancer 3mx4m), Honor Babe (Northern Dancer 4mx5m), Strasbourg (Traffic Judge 5fx5f), Another Warrior (Star Kingdom 5m,5mx4m), Zagalia (Northern Dancer 4mx4m), Rose Archway (Owen Tudor 5mx5m) and Ain’t Seen Nothin’ (Sir Ivor 4mx3m).

The most common same sex duplication is through Northern Dancer. Both Grand Armee and Platinum Scissors see Nijinsky as one of the Northern Dancer sons duplicated. The other two, Honor Babe and Zagalia are both mares, but both have an RF that my earlier research suggested balances an all male duplication.

My earlier article also suggested that one all male duplication had little negative effect on a pedigree. Of the above horses with a close up all male duplication, the following had more than one same sex duplication within 6 generations:

Platinum Scissors

Northern Dancer 3mx4m, Natalma 4m,4fx5m, Alibhai 5fx6m, Tom Fool 5mx6m, Fair Trial 6mx6f, Menow 6mx6f

While both Northern Dancer and Tom Fool are duplicated via the same sex, we see that not only is one of the Northern Dancer sons Nijinsky, but we also see an RF to Natalma.

Honor Babe

Northern Dancer 4mx5m, Nearco 5m,6mx6m,5f,6m, Princequillo 5fx5m, Hyperion 6fx6f, Fair Trial 6mx6f, Mumtaz Begum 6mx6f

Again we see an RF to Mumtaz Begum that on face value would seem to negate multiple same sex duplications.

Another Warrior

Star Kingdom 5m,5mx4m, Hyperion 6mx6m, Bull Lea 6mx6f

This stallion would seem to be the only runner in the field that has multiple same sex duplications that do not fit within one of the possible exclusions. Is it possible that we can view this as a weakness in his pedigree and as such rule him out of serious contention? Alternatively, is Star Kingdom an influence that can overcome a possible all male multiple duplication issue. Perhaps the fact that Star Kingdom forms a basis of the second all male duplication via Hyperion means that this case should be viewed as only a single duplication seeing as Star Kingdom is a son of Hyperion.

Zagalia

Sir Ivor 3mx4f, Northern Dancer 4mx4m, All Moonshine 5fx6m, Nearco 6mx6m,6m

Again we see an RF through All Moonshine

Rose Archway

Owen Tudor 5mx5m, Hyperion 6m,6mx6m, Nasrullah 6mx6m, Nearco 6mx6m,6f

The pedigree is dominated by same sex duplications. I would also include this pedigree as an exception to the exclusions in spite of the fact that this is a mare. I have found little difference in male and female pedigrees when it comes to same sex duplications.

Ain’t Seen Nothin’

Sir Ivor 4mx3m, Nearco 6mx6m, Princequillo 6mx6f, Almahmoud 6f,6fx6f

The RF to the mare Amahmoud would fit within the exceptions

Conclusions

Once again we see that one all male duplication would appear to have little negative influence on a pedigree. Multiple same sex duplications appear that they may cause difficulty except when balanced by a duplication of a female.