The AAMI Victoria Derby

AAMI VICTORIA DERBY 2500M

FACE VALUE [0.41/2.05] [2-9-21-0-0]

Turn-To 4mx5m, Nearctic 4fx5m

KEMPINSKY [0.29/1.74] [2-15-32-2-1]

Nil five generation duplications

ELVSTROEM [0.46/2.11] [11-14-26-0-5]

Nil five generation duplications

PENITENTIARY [0.06/1.00] [5-1-4-2-4]

Tudor Minstrel 4fx5f

NOBLE RED [0.33/1.40] [5-4-17-4-0]

Nashua 4fx5f

CANNYOPRA [1.28/5.55] [21-4-11-0-0]

Star Kingdom 4mx5f, Fair Trial 5f,6mx5m

OUR SPUR [0.73/3.00] [6-7-13-0-0]

Nil five generation duplications

EXTOLLING VIRTUE [0.73/2.47] [8-3-15-0-0]

Tom Fool 4mx5f,5f

CAPTAIN ZIGZAG [1.11/4.14] [9-2-7-0-0]

Nil five generation duplications

DEMBELIS [0.81/2.76] [11-6-13-2-0]

Mr Prospector 2mx4f, Nasrullah 5m,5fx5m,6f

OUR BAHARE [0.50/1.89] [5-5-14-2-0]

Bull Page 5fx5m

DUNKIRK [0.33/1.40] [6-0-2-0-4]

Court Martial 5fx5f

GOLDEN BREED [0.36/1.44] [4-3-12-3-0]

Northern Dancer 4mx5f

DANASRI [0.24/1.57] [6-13-28-2-5]

Northern Dancer 3mx4m, Natalma 4m,4fx5m

Comment

As we have seen throughout the Spring, most runners fit within the predicted range of dosages for the distance. Cannyopra, Captain Zigzag, Our Spur, Extolling Virtue and Face Value all appear good risks to me as all seem to lack the true stamina influences close up in their pedigrees.

I find it pretty hard to split Elvstroem and Kempinsky. Elvstroem probably has a little more brilliance, but Kempinsky could well be stronger at the end. A lot will depend on how the race is run. Quite a few runners seem well suited to the distance, but Danasri is my tip for a roughie to fill the placings.


QANTAS WAKEFUL STAKES 2000M

SPECIAL HARMONY [0.43/1.67]
RINKY DINK [0.83/3.00]
TIMBOURINA [1.00/3.00]
PORTLAND DAMASK [0.63/1.91]
ANNIE LA VIE [1.08/4.43]
BARBERTON [0.83/3.29]
DANE BELLTAR [0.71/4.60]
TULLY BELLOTTO [1.00/3.00]
GENEROSA [0.53/1.91]
DEPUTY DEHERE [0.70/2.33]
LA BOISSELLE [0.48/2.33]
GRANDLY [0.46/1.67]
DUBAI PEARL [0.46/1.48]
RAMANAKOV [0.65/3.00]


Quite a few chances in this race with a number of fillies a bit suspect at the distance. Special Harmony will no doubt be hard to beat. This will probably be a good race for multiples so don’t leave out Grandly, Generosa, Deputy Dehere, La Boisselle and Portland Damask.


THRIFTY MACKINNON STAKES 2000M

FIELDS OF OMAGH [0.80/2.33]
EXCELLERATOR [1.10/3.67]
PENTASTIC [0.90/2.64]
DISTINCTLY SECRET [0.95/3.89]
HAIL [0.50/2.00]
CHATTANOOGA [0.67/1.57]
EMISSION [0.14/1.33]
MUMMIFY [0.65/3.44]
NATURAL BLITZ [0.10/1.40]
STRASBOURG [0.75/2.43]
AIN’T SEEN NOTHIN’ [0.50/2.53]
AMBULANCE [0.92/3.36]
CASUAL PASS [1.19/3.57]


Fields Of Omagh again looks hard to beat. I have spoken about Mummify’s dosages before and think that he is certainly one to watch. Keep an eye on the runs of Hail, Chattanooga, Emission and Natural Blitz for next Tuesday.


SAAB QUALITY 2500M

HENDERSON BAY [0.00/1.71]
OARSMAN (NZ) [-0.78/0.20]
PIACHAY [0.24/1.52]
FAWAZ [1.04/3.67]
LEGIBLE (NZ) [-0.08/0.89]
BIG PAT [1.05/3.40]
DEBBEN [0.60/1.67]
BULKHEAD [0.73/3.00]
SIR PENTIRE (NZ) [-0.11/0.85]
DANCE ON WOOD [0.38/1.63]
TOMORROW’S PARTY (NZ) [-0.28/0.60]
SPECIAL SCENE [0.29/1.15]
MILZEEL (NZ) [-0.33/0.75]


Henderson Bay, Debben and Dance On Wood could all run well. Piachay is a forgotten horse and the Queensland Cup winner should not be left out of calculations for the Cup.