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Melbourne Cup 2023: 3 Tips to choose a winning horse

| August 13, 2023

It’s that time of year again! The Melbourne Cup is just around the corner, and everyone is eager to place bets, hoping to take the big prize home.

The Melbourne Cup is Australia’s greatest race, and it’s not hard to see why. Held annually every first Tuesday of November at Flemington Racecourse (120,000 capacity), the event draws in huge crowds from all over the country.

The total prize pool for this year’s race is a whopping AUD$8 million, and the first place will take home AUD$ 4.4 million, making it one of the richest turf races in the world. With such high stakes, it’s no wonder why countless spectators are eager to place bets.

The Melbourne Cup is the greatest horse race in Australia and one of the most iconic horse races in the world.

To help you make the most of your bets for the upcoming Melbourne Cup, here are tips for choosing the horse that’s most likely to win.

  1. Look at the horse’s form

This criterion is probably the most important factor when picking a competent horse. The form refers to the horse’s recent results and will indicate the thoroughbred’s likely performance.

When looking at the horse’s form, pay attention to the following:

  • Finishing position in its last races: A horse consistently finishing in the top three is more likely capable of winning the race.
  • Average speed: This aspect measures how fast the horse has been running in recent races. A higher speed means the horse is in good form and could be a great contender for the Melbourne Cup 2023.
  • Performance against similar competitors: If the thoroughbred has recently raced against horses similar to those on the Melbourne Cup field, it’s a good sign that the horse can compete at that level.

It’s also worth noting the horse’s age, as this could affect its performance. In a study, a thoroughbred who began race training early at two years of age is associated with higher race starts, wins, and more earnings. Moreover, there’s no clear evidence that the injury risk is higher in these young racehorses.

  1. Consider the jockey

Even the best horse may not win without a good jockey. After all, the jockey’s job is to guide the horse around the track, set the pace and make split-second decisions. That means the jockey key to whether or not a horse wins the race.

Research shows that the body composition of jockeys has an impact on their riding performance. Maintaining a competitive weight is important for jockeys, as it affects the amount of weight the horse must carry. Typically, jockeys need to reduce around 4% of their body mass in the days leading up to a race.

Apart from that, a jockey’s statistics is another factor, similar to horse performance. Here are a few points to look at:

  • The number of races won: This reflects the jockey’s skills. A higher number of wins means the jockey is more experienced and knows how to guide a horse to victory.
  • The number of races ridden: The more races a jockey has ridden, the more likely they’re to have an understanding of different racetracks.
  • Winning percentage: This is a good metric to consider alongside the number of races won. A higher winning percentage means that the jockey is more successful in the races they ride.

As you can see, the jockey is just as important as the horse. It’s a team endeavour where a great jockey can be the game-changer.

Choosing the winner of the Melbourne Cup is a difficult but immensely rewarding task.
  1. Check the favourites

The Melbourne Cup is a popular event, so there’s usually a lot of money placed on the race. This can influence the odds for each horse.

Favourites are the horses that have been given the best odds of winning by the bookmakers. The bookmakers have looked at all the factors involved in the race and predicted that a specific runner would likely come out on top.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that the favourites always win. As a matter of fact, Gold Trip, a six-year-old stallion ridden by Mark Zahra and trained by Ciaron Maher and David Eustace, wasn’t considered the top favourite to win the Melbourne Cup 2022. But he still managed to take home the first place, much to the surprise of many punters. In this upcoming Melbourne Cup event, a few front runners have been given strong odds.

Some of the top favourites for the Melbourne Cup 2023 include the following in no particular order:

  • Vauban
  • Goldman
  • Lunar Flare
  • Without A Fight
  • White Marlin
  • Francesco Guardi
  • Soulcombe
  • Silver Sonic
  • Breakup
  • Gold Trip

Remember, these results are subject to change as the race approaches. A lesser-known horse could still take the lead and win the race. So, keep track of the latest news and odds before betting on your favourites.


Without a doubt, the Melbourne Cup is one of the most sought-after annual events in the country. If you’re thinking of placing a bet, consider the tips above carefully. Doing so will give you a better chance of picking a winner and scoring a big payday.

Category: Racing

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